From ROLL CALL POLITICS

Monday, May 5, 2008

Alabama

Filing deadline: Passed
Primary: June 3
Runoff: July 15

Senate
Incumbent: Jeff Session (R)
2nd term (59 percent)
Outlook: Safe Republican

Early in the cycle, Democrats had hoped that State Agriculture and Industries Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) would step into this race and give Sessions a real challenge. Sparks, who has won two statewide elections, seriously considered the possibility and even traveled to Washington, D.C., to meet with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

But Sparks passed on the race, claiming that he did not want to run in a contentious primary against state Sen. Vivian Davis Figures (D), even though most party officials felt he would have easily won the nomination.

Sessions, who was sitting on a more than $4 million war chest as of March 31, is expected to cruise to victory in November.

House

2nd district
Open seat: Terry Everett (R)
Is retiring
Outlook: Leans Republican

Although there was speculation over the winter that he might enter the race as Republican, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright is running as a conservative Democrat, and he has changed the entire dynamic of the race.

Bright's candidacy has been trumpeted by national party leaders, who hope that the popular mayor with family roots in the southern part of the district which is usually a reliable Republican seat.

But Bright, who is serving his third term as mayor of the state's second largest city, will first have to get past Alabama National Organization for Women President Cheryl Sabel and dentist Cendie Crawley in the Democratic primary. Sabel could be a particular problem for Bright, if she forces him to tack left to attract primary voters.

On the Republican side, state Sen. Harri Anne Smith and state Rep. Jay Love appear to be leading contenders. Both jumped into the race immediately after Everett's fall retirement announcement, allowing them to raise money for several months before Bright made his decision to run in late February. Love had $277,000 in cash on hand on March 31, but most of the money came from a $300,000 loan he made to his own campaign at the end of 2007. Smith reported $139,000 in cash on hand and no debt.

TV station executive David Woods and oral surgeon Craig Schmidtke have also thrown their hats into the GOP race, Woods filed for the race in January and reported an impressive $309,000 in cash on hand at the end of the first quarter, though he loaned his campaign $250,000.

5th district
Open seat: Bud Cramer (D)
Is retiring
Outlook: Tossup

During a cycle that has seen large numbers of House Republicans decide not to run again, Cramer's sudden retirement announcement in March came as welcome news to GOP officials, who are hoping to snatch up this Huntsville-based seat deep in the heart of Dixie.

The 5th is a district where Republicans routinely have dominated Democrats in presidential elections. In 2004, President Bush took 60 percent of the vote there at the same time that Cramer was winning re-election with 73 percent.

The leading republican candidate is Huntsville commercial insurance broker Wayne Parker, who was the GOP nominee against Cramer twice in the mid-1990's. Prior to announcing his candidacy on April 3, Parker had been fundraising for about a week, and in that time he raised $177,000, according to his first-quarter Federal Election Commission report.

Parker's top Democratic rival appears to be state Sen. Parker Griffith, whom Cramer endorsed in early April. After announcing on March 21, Griffith raised $115,000 and reported $112,000 in cash on hand as of the end of the quarter.